Salmon prices are soaring due to an unexpected factor that threatens its future: 'We must do what we can'

Salmon prices are soaring in Japan due to dwindling populations in the country's waters, and climate change is the culprit.

What's happening?

As detailed by Japan Today, a researcher determined that chum salmon in the northern district of Hokkaido have been forced "into a losing battle with a relative for food" due to ongoing climate change, which is hindering their return to the rivers where they were originally released.

The Hokkaido government revealed that salmon numbers dropped from a peak of 56.47 million in 2003 to 15.62 million in 2024, the second-lowest figure on record since 1989. The gradual population decline has led to a spike in salmon prices among retailers, with the popular salmon jerky snack Sake Toba seeing a 20% increase this past winter.

"We kept the price unchanged for over 10 years, but with poor catches, we had no choice," said shop manager Kei Numahata at the Nijo Fish Market, per Japan Today.

The increased prices have driven customers away from their usual markets.

"Some customers have told me they'll hold off this season," a 75-year-old employee who sometimes charges three times the usual price for salmon roe told Japan Today.

Why is this important?

Japan Today noted that salmon is widely considered one of the country's favorite seafoods. Chum salmon "make up the bulk of Japan's salmon catch," but they're losing the battle for food with pink salmon that migrated to the area seeking cooler ocean temperatures to escape global warming. The loss of food has stopped chum salmon from growing in the region, thwarting the ability to secure eggs that could be used for artificial hatching.

Masahide Kaeriyama, a salmon ecology expert and professor emeritus at Hokkaido University, painted a bleak outlook if the population keeps declining.

"If this trend continues, there will be no more salmon in Japan in the next century," Kaeriyama told Japan Today.

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In addition to affecting feeding patterns, climate change has created favorable conditions for more frequent extreme weather events, disrupting marine ecosystems and displacing wildlife from their habitats. These changes can affect fishermen's livelihoods and increase grocery prices.

What's being done about this?

An association to promote the breeding of salmon and freshwater trout in the Iwate district in northeastern Japan has attempted to do its part by doubling the weight of released juvenile salmon from two to three grams in hopes of seeing "higher survival rates by allowing them to grow before being released into rivers," per Japan Today.

"It will take several years to see the results, but we must do what we can," an association official said.

Kaeriyama maintained that reversing the decline in salmon populations won't be an easy task until real progress is made in addressing the root causes of global warming.

"I'd urge people to understand that this is not just about the inability to secure fishery resources, but also about the survival of the species itself," Kaeriyama told Japan Today.

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