Lake Powell, the largest reservoir in the upper Colorado River basin, is on track for what could become its worst summer inflow on record — another stark signal of how stressed the Southwest's water system has become.
And with federal agencies now preparing emergency releases from another reservoir to help keep Powell afloat, the latest forecast shows just how serious the strain has become for the communities, farms, and power systems that rely on the Colorado River.
According to UPR, Lake Powell is forecast to get about 800,000 acre-feet through July, which represents roughly 13% of its normal summer inflow. If that projection holds, it would mark the reservoir's lowest summer inflow on record.
Lake Powell is much more than a recreation destination. It serves as a critical storage reserve for the Colorado River, helping supply water to people across the West, including cities, farms, and tribal communities. It also plays a major role in hydropower generation and river operations throughout the basin.
Over the past two months, flows have drastically slowed into Lake Powell, alarming hydrologists familiar with the issue.
Cody Moser, a federal hydrologist working for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, explained the dire situation on a webinar, saying there's "really no good news … we did see a cooldown and a wetter April, but it pales in comparison to this five-, six-month stretch of just record warm and dry weather that we've seen."
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The Department of the Interior employees have initiated emergency measures to deal with Lake Powell's water levels. The agency has begun sending water from the Flaming Gorge Reservoir near the Wyoming-Utah border downstream to help shore up Powell.
The DOI is also keeping 1.5 million acre-feet of water from flowing from Lake Powell into Lake Mead to keep water levels high. This is happening even though Lake Mead, the other major backbone reservoir in the Colorado River system, is only 17 feet above its record low.
The upper and lower basin states remain deadlocked over how to split reductions as supplies continue to decline. Taken together, the outlook is increasingly troubling: less water is entering the system, and the region's largest reservoirs remain dangerously depleted. Meanwhile, the states that depend on them still have not agreed on how to share the burden.
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