Farmers on edge as unstable monsoon timing threatens harvest stability: 'Could hasten the seasonal rise in ... prices'

India's rapidly rising temperatures and intense heat waves could have a disastrous effect on its food security, experts are warning. The extreme weather conditions could also have a knock-on effect on India's economy. 

Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head of research and outreach for risk management company ICRA, told Forbes India: "Above-normal temperatures and potential heat waves in some parts of the country over the next few months could hasten the seasonal rise in vegetable prices that is typically seen between March and July, and hence are key monitorables."

What's happening?

India's heat waves have grown significantly in frequency and intensity in recent years. An economic survey by the India Meteorological Department found that in 2020, heat waves lasted 12 days over the year. In 2024, this number jumped to 76 days, and 2025 could be even worse. 

Aside from being unpleasant to live in, extreme heat hampers food productivity by causing food to ripen and spoil more quickly than usual. It degrades the soil and vastly increases energy and water usage. 

This, in turn, will exacerbate the problems. India is still heavily reliant on coal and other dirty sources of energy. As Reuters observed, while strides have been made to encourage renewable energy, more than half of India's energy still comes from coal. 

Why is this concerning?

India has a truly gigantic agricultural sector. The World Bank describes the country as a "global agricultural powerhouse." 

With no additional land to cultivate, India needs to increase productivity to meet the needs of a population set to peak at 1.7 billion by 2060, per The Hindu. 

India has an impressive track record when it comes to increasing food production. In the 1960s, India went through the Green Revolution, where it essentially became self-sufficient in staple crops like wheat. However, this came with a hefty ecological cost the coutnry won't be able to shoulder a second time. 

What's being done about this?

Adopting sustainable agricultural practices should be the first priority. Things like no-till farming, with cover crops, can boost production while minimizing soil disruption and degradation. Using fewer or no pesticides and better water management are other examples. Technology can also aid this process by using resources more efficiently. India's agri-tech sector is thriving, and government investment could usher in a bright new era for India's farmers. 

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Of course, this is true of all nations. A global review of how the climate crisis worsens the negative impact of agriculture by Columbia University was published in the Science journal in September. 

The study examined new practices to reduce harm while boosting productivity. David Tilman, one of the study's co-authors, said: "By evaluating new practices being tried around the world, we have identified practices that appear to increase harvests while decreasing environmental harm. … Enabling better stewardship has tremendous benefits for all of us."

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