Category 5 Hurricane Melissa was packing maximum sustained winds of 165 mph as of early Monday as the eye of the storm crawled slowly north at just 3 mph toward Jamaica. The slow movement of Melissa has meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center concerned about the devastation the storm will inflict on Jamaica as well as portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Meteorologists at nonprofit Climate Central knew Melissa had the potential to become the third Category 5 storm of the Atlantic hurricane season as they tracked it over the past weekend. By Sunday morning, Melissa was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.
CNN meteorologist and climate specialist Elisa Raffa commented Sunday on the social media platform X about the dire impacts, including up to 40 inches of rain, that could hit Jamaica this week.
"Rapid intensification is not new, but now happens much faster & more often," Raffa said. "... More strengthening is still possible."
Melissa strengthened while passing over water that was 2.5 degrees warmer than average. That extra warmth was 500 to 700 times more likely because of our overheating planet, according to Climate Central researchers. Melissa is the third out of four hurricanes to experience rapid intensification during this Atlantic hurricane season.
Hurricane Melissa was located around 145 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and nearly 330 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, early Monday. The slow movement of the storm means catastrophic impacts across regions in its path, as they are subjected to prolonged torrential rain and strong winds.
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"Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday," according to the National Hurricane Center. "Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30% stronger."
Melissa is expected to dump between 15 and 30 inches of rain in parts of Jamaica and around 8 to 16 inches in southern Hispaniola through Wednesday. The NHC warns that up to 40 inches of rain could fall in some spots. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.
Melissa will also bring a life-threatening storm surge to the south coast of Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday. "Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall," warned the NHC. "This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."
Melissa is one more example of how our warming world is supercharging extreme weather events. Climate Central researchers determined that our overheating oceans increased wind speeds in every Atlantic hurricane last year, boosting their highest sustained winds by 3 to 14 mph.
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