Scientists in Europe are sounding alarm bells after a new study showed that half of the continent's highest-yielding farmland is currently threatened by environmental changes.
What's happening?
According to Phys.org, Dr. Max Torbenson of Germany's Johannes Gutenberg University explored proxy and historical data to model changes to Europe's agricultural climate and found that up to half of the agricultural land deemed to be high-yielding in a long-term context had been lost. They estimate that the problem will continue to get worse in the coming years due to warming global temperatures.
"The higher emissions scenario (the 'business as usual' scenario) would cause the biggest change to agroclimatic conditions, possibly pushing the whole region into the red," Dr. Torbenson said.
On top of that, the study indicated that high-yield land was shifting northward as temperatures rose and weather patterns shifted and changed. However, just because conditions become favorable in those northern regions does not guarantee that the land is now usable. In many cases, the land is forested or sits on slopes or mountains, making it nonviable for farming without profoundly altering the environment.
Specifically, things like sugar beets, wheat, and grassland for grazing animals could be profoundly negatively impacted by these changes.
Why is farmland loss important?
As farmland becomes less and less tenable, it's going to have a profound impact on crop production, which will very quickly cause food shortages in Europe and globally. Many parts of central Europe export large quantities of wheat and grains around the globe, and losing those crops will have a devastating impact on the economies and people in those regions.
The researchers also noted shifting and declining agroclimate conditions tended to link with societal downturns in Central Europe, meaning that social tensions could heighten as farming becomes less viable as an occupation in regions where it has historically been a boon.
What's being done about farmland loss?
The biggest thing that can be done to reduce the loss of farmland, both in Europe and globally, is to reduce harmful pollution associated with warming global temperatures.
Torbenson and his team looked at a variety of models, and while the bleakest was the high-emission model, he noted that lower-emission models showed much more favorable outcomes.
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"It is worth noting that different climate models produce different results," Torbenson said. "Although the direction of change is the same, the magnitude varies quite considerably. Conversely, the results for the low emissions scenario suggest that the 21st century could be very favorable for agricultural production."
Pushing for less polluting modes of transportation, like high-speed rail, is a great way to help support the planet for future generations. Voting for politicians who are in favor of stricter pollution standards and stiff punishments for companies that violate such laws is another.
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