A new study by the U.K. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology in collaboration with the University of East Anglia has predicted which crops will thrive and wilt as a result of climate change in the coming decades. This study is the first to track crop future variance across the United Kingdom and is the most comprehensive projection of its kind.
What's happening?
In investigating future suitability for over 160 existing and new crops in different regions of the U.K. under two different global warming scenarios — 2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius greater than preindustrial temperatures (for context, 2024 temperatures were 1.35 degrees Celsius higher) — scientists found climate change could result in increased suitability for many existing and new crops across the U.K. Potential winners of the warmer climate include sunflowers, durum wheat, soybeans, cowpeas, chickpeas, citrus fruits and okra.
On the other hand, the U.K.'s most fertile regions are expected to become less arable over time. The 2 degrees Celsius scenario sees wheat and strawberries declining in suitability, while the 4 degrees Celsius scenario kills the prospects of many other popular British crops, including onions and oats.
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Not enough time ⏳ Why are crop futures important?
Global warming is here and has gotten worse year over year. Naturally, this affects crop yields everywhere, and one of the reasons the U.K. group commissioned this study is that the country has already been impacted significantly in recent years.
The U.K. recorded its wettest 18-month stretch on record from October 2022 to March 2024, per Yale Climate Connections. However, counterintuitively, heavy rainfall and flooding may result in decreased crop yields throughout 2025.
Additionally, in the last few years, British supermarkets have had to ration produce due to extreme weather, and the country recently suffered its second-worst harvest season ever. Everyone is hurting under this current agricultural strategy, from farmers who harvest fewer crops and make less money to customers who pay higher prices due to increased scarcity.
What does the future of agriculture look like?
The study at hand projected patterns out to 2080 for a reason. Changing the way agriculture and farming operate will be a long process that requires trial and error with various crops and constant adaptation to the unpredictable nature of global warming.
Nations around the globe are investigating potential futures like the U.K. Northern European scientists are conducting research into crop diversification, Bangladeshi farmers gave up shrimp farming for agriculture, and an eight-year study in India concluded that the second-most populous nation in the world should adopt more principles of conservation agriculture to preserve as much arable land as possible.
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