Grid serving Maryland and Virginia expects record winter demand as power reserves tighten

The grid operator serving Maryland, Virginia, and 11 other states as well as Washington, D.C. expects winter electricity demand to reach a record as its cushion of available power shrinks.

Extreme cold and generator failures could strain the system, though PJM expects supplies to cover demand under anticipated conditions.

Here's what to know

PJM's winter outlook projects an operating supply of 182,426 megawatts and a customer demand peak of roughly 147,500 megawatts, according to PJM's Inside Lines. The operator expects to export an average of about 3,200 megawatts to neighboring systems.

The projected demand would surpass PJM's winter record of 143,700 megawatts, set on Jan. 22, 2025. 

PJM noted that the BGE, Pepco, and Dominion zones in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington face limits on electricity deliveries from other parts of the grid. Those transmission constraints make generator performance during extreme cold especially important to maintaining service.

The National Weather Service expects winter temperatures to be slightly above normal across PJM's territory. Nevertheless, the operator has studied more demanding scenarios in which electricity demand reaches 152,200 megawatts while less generation is available.

More background

Data centers and other large electricity users are helping drive rising demand, per PJM. 

Its forecast winter peak has increased about 5% since 2022, a gain of approximately 7,500 megawatts. New power supplies aren't quickly offsetting retiring generators, leaving the system with less reserve capacity.

PJM also reported having fewer flexible generators able to respond promptly to its operating instructions. Outages approaching the roughly 46,000 megawatts experienced during Winter Storm Elliott could put reliable electricity service at risk.

From Jan. 26 through Feb. 2, PJM recorded winter demand peaks exceeding 130,000 megawatts on eight successive days during its longest stretch of extreme cold since the 1990s.

What's being done?

Engaging both its pre-emergency and emergency demand response would keep service reliable in the tougher scenarios PJM analyzed. Demand response compensates participating customers ahead of time for cutting electricity use on request, helping ease peak demand. 

It was activated 15 times in 2025 and 2026, compared to eight times over the preceding eight years.

Generator preparation includes required maintenance, reporting cold weather operating data, and testing units that have been idle for several weeks, according to PJM.

PJM and ReliabilityFirst expect to conduct 30 to 35 site visits in 2026, up from fewer than 10 before 2023. Generators receiving visits have had lower outage rates than those without visits.

Emergency options also include Department of Energy orders allowing designated generators to exceed permitted emissions limits. As a last resort to protect residential service, PJM has the authority to require backup generation from data centers and other large customers. It has never exercised that authority.

PJM executive director of system operations David Souder emphasized the importance of managing generation ahead of winter peaks against a backdrop of spiking demand.

"Generator performance is more critical than ever as we operate with less room for error," Souder warned. "Reliability of the system will depend on that performance."

Where can I learn more?

PJM's forecast of record winter demand comes as electricity costs prompt concern in several states. These stories cover data center oversight and proposed utility rate increases.

• In Illinois, PJM will track data centers but cannot shut them down before homes.

• In Virginia, a utility's proposed 23% rate hike has drawn concern from small businesses.

• Maryland regulators expect more utility rate requests even as RELIEF Act savings begin.

• Potomac Edison seeks a 5.3% power bill increase for households in western Maryland.

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