Compared with many other tropical land areas, India saw a slower rise in temperature from 2001 to 2024 — but slower warming is not the same as avoiding climate pressure.
Researchers say part of the explanation may be that aerosols in the atmosphere, along with more cloud cover, have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the surface and temporarily muted some of the warming.
Here's what to know
Between 2001 and 2024, the country's warming trend averaged about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit (0.138 degrees Celsius) per decade, compared with roughly 0.50 degrees Fahrenheit (0.280 degrees Celsius) per decade across northern tropical land overall. However, Earth.com reports that the study suggests this slower pace may be partly tied to surface dimming caused by particles in the air and shifts in cloud cover.
Drawing on satellite records, ground measurements, and climate modeling, the researchers examined how aerosols, clouds, surface sunlight, and temperatures changed across India from 2001 to 2024. The analysis was led by Vijayakumar S. Nair of the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre.
"The cooling paradox [observed in and around India] has been linked primarily to increased aerosol loading and the lower climate sensitivity of the region," Nair said. "This study aims to quantify the contributions of aerosols and clouds to the reduced warming trend over India utilizing both satellite and ground-based observations."
In the team's estimates, aerosol changes held down India's warming trend by about 0.08 degrees Fahrenheit (0.042 degrees Celsius) per decade, and cloud changes reduced it by another 0.15 degrees Fahrenheit (0.083 degrees Celsius) per decade. Together, those influences lowered the trend by roughly 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.125 degrees Celsius) per decade — close to the full amount of warming observed.
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More background
Aerosols can alter surface temperatures by changing how much solar energy gets through the atmosphere. These tiny airborne particles, which may be liquid or solid, come from natural sources like dust as well as human activities such as fuel burning and industrial pollution, and depending on their composition, they either reflect sunlight or absorb it.
Across the study window, India saw aerosol concentrations rise, especially in the country's central region and along the eastern coast. The makeup of those particles changed too: many monitoring sites recorded declines in black carbon and dust, leaving an aerosol mixture that scattered more sunlight and absorbed less.
The study also found more cloud cover, with central and western India standing out. Low clouds mattered most because they are particularly effective at keeping sunlight from reaching the ground. Even so, the authors said they could not directly show that aerosols caused the added cloudiness; shifts in weather, moisture, natural climate swings, and greenhouse warming could also be involved.
Whatever its climate effect, air pollution remains a serious public-health danger. And if efforts to clean the air reduce the particles now shading the surface, India could see health benefits alongside a quicker rise in ground-level temperatures.
What's being done?
The authors are not suggesting pollution should be preserved as a brake on warming. Their conclusion is that air-quality improvements and climate adaptation need to move forward together.
Nair said future climate projections still struggle with aerosol-cloud interactions, especially when estimating how surface temperature trends may change as air-quality measures reduce aerosols. The researchers also pointed to modeling constraints, noting that part of their work depended on a regional climate model spanning 2014 to mid-2019 and then applying those findings to the longer record.
That means the surface temperature record may not fully capture the greenhouse-driven warming building underneath. If cleaner-air policies continue and aerosol levels shift, the current masking effect may fade.
"This enhanced dimming has resulted in significant surface cooling (-0.125°C per decade), with an absolute magnitude comparable to the observed warming trend (+0.138°C per decade)," Nair said. "Thus, in the absence of surface dimming induced by aerosols and clouds, the surface warming trend over the Indian region would have been nearly twice as large during the recent decades."
Where can I learn more?
Cloud cover, extreme heat, and shifting seasons all shape how climate stress shows up from one region to the next.
• Across India, the world's 50 hottest cities are all enduring brutal heat as temperatures surge.
• In Wisconsin, seasons no longer follow the calendar as climate shifts threaten farmers' crops.
• In Rajasthan, a massive dust storm swallows cities in minutes and shreds visibility.
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