Germany beats full-year EV forecast in October as gasoline car registrations plunge 40.5%

Germany surpassed the auto industry's full-year electric-car forecast with two months to spare in 2026, as buyers increasingly turned away from gasoline-powered vehicles.

Here's what to know

Electrek reported battery-electric vehicles reached a record 37% share of Germany's new-car market in October, citing data from the country's federal motor vehicle authority, the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt.

Gasoline car registrations fell 40.5% in October, while fully electric cars outsold gasoline and diesel models combined for the second consecutive month.

Fully electric registrations totaled 94,086, up from 52,425 a year earlier. That was a 79.5% increase. Diesel registrations fell 21.6% to 23,882. Total registrations reached 254,492, just 1.7% above the year-earlier figure, while gasoline registrations dropped to 38,516.

Gasoline's share stood at 15.1%, compared with diesel's 9.4%. Together, gasoline and diesel models accounted for 24.5% of new registrations, 12.5 percentage points below fully electric cars alone.

Electrek noted that plug-in hybrid registrations also fell 7.9% to 28,499, or 11.2% of the market. Even with that drop, plug-in vehicles accounted for about 48% of Germany's October registrations.

More background

In June, BEVs became Germany's most popular powertrain, accounting for 28.4% of new registrations, according to Electrek. Their share rose to 32.4% in August and 34.5% in September.

During the first 10 months of 2026, Germany registered 698,230 battery-electric vehicles, a 60.7% increase from the same period a year earlier. These vehicles represented about 28.2% of the country's 2,476,290 new-car registrations, compared with roughly 19% for all of 2025.

The outlet noted that Germany's auto industry association, the VDA, had forecast about 693,000 battery-electric registrations for the year.

The October average for carbon dioxide pollution from new registrations was 21.1% lower than a year earlier, reaching 4.51 ounces per mile (79.4 grams per kilometer), according to Electrek.

"Gas (sorry Petrol) in Germany is also right at 7.80 Euros/gallon right now," a commenter theorized. "I'm sure that has something to do with it as well."  

What's being done?

According to Electrek, some of the shift toward BEVs reflects the support available through Germany's new electric-vehicle incentive. Qualifying purchases made in 2026 can receive support because the incentive covers eligible vehicles registered from January 1 onward.

For lower-income households with children, that support can reach €6,000 (~$6,723). Buyers can receive €3,000 (~$3,362) toward a new battery-electric car, whether purchased or leased.

Eligibility depends on household income. Households are ineligible if their taxable income exceeds €80,000 (~$89,642), rising to €90,000 (~$100,847) for households with children.

Private buyers accounted for 40.7% of all new-car registrations. The Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt's October figures showed 20.6% growth while commercial registrations declined 8.2%.

At the pace reported through October, Germany was on track to finish 2026 with around 875,000 battery-electric registrations, which Electrek noted is 182,000 more than the VDA's original full-year forecast.

A commenter suggested the transition could accelerate.

"One thing to consider when talking about EVs not being Germany-made is that Germany car makers can't make them fast enough," they wrote. "A lot of the models are sold out for months."

Where can I learn more?

Electric cars are gaining ground beyond Germany, too. 

• Volkswagen received more EV orders than gas-car orders in Germany, then cut extra shifts.

• Across Europe, EVs outsell gas and diesel, leaving the United States as the biggest holdout.

• Worldwide, gas-only cars fall below half of new sales as fuel prices rise.

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