Florida residents are being warned not to let an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season create a false sense of safety.
Even though not a single tropical storm had strengthened into a hurricane by Sept. 12, forecasters say the Gulf still warrants close attention as the heart of storm season continues.
Here's what to know
According to the Pensacola News Journal, the Atlantic reached Sept. 12 without producing a hurricane, an outcome that set a 60-year mark.
Through Sept. 14, the 2026 season had generated five tropical storms and zero hurricanes. AccuWeather said the basin had never waited this long for its first hurricane since satellite monitoring began.
Forecasters, however, are not treating the slow pace as a sign the season will stay quiet. AccuWeather said recorded history includes only two Atlantic seasons with no hurricanes at all, so the late start does not make a hurricane-free year likely.
Farther east, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a system more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The feature is still just a trough of low pressure with disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and strong wind shear continues to keep it from developing.
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AccuWeather is also urging people along the Gulf Coast to watch for stalled patterns and fading fronts in the region, since those setups can sometimes lead to tropical activity even without a well-defined system already present.
More background
NOAA's averages put the first Atlantic hurricane around Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane around Sept. 1.
The basin is generally well into its busiest stretch.
AccuWeather hurricane experts said El Niño may help explain the slow season, because the pattern can raise Atlantic wind shear and make organization and strengthening harder for tropical systems.
Systems can still form under those conditions, but they may struggle to stay organized long enough to reach hurricane strength.
AccuWeather cited storms around Pensacola as evidence that parts of the Gulf region may still have some supportive ingredients, such as lower wind shear and richer moisture, even when no tropical cyclone is immediately evident.
What can be done?
An uneventful opening to the season does not guarantee a quiet finish, particularly if weather disturbances reach better conditions or old fronts hang over warm water.
Following updates from the National Hurricane Center and trusted local forecasters can help residents avoid reacting too late. People do not need a named hurricane nearby to start paying attention, as fast-changing Gulf weather can still create dangerous conditions.
"The Gulf Coast is a common resting place for fronts that previously moved into the region from the north and west," AccuWeather said, adding that "Tropical development can occasionally occur along these decaying frontal boundaries."
Where can I learn more?
These articles add context to the warning behind Florida's forecast: a slow Atlantic season can still turn dangerous quickly. They cover unusual ocean conditions, emerging tropical threats, and the kinds of storm impacts that help explain why Gulf Coast residents are still urged to stay prepared.
• AccuWeather also warned coastal and inland areas could still face storms after a sluggish Atlantic start in 2025.
• Near Puerto Rico, the National Weather Service watched a potential tropical depression as threats built.
• Researchers found more rainfall and flooding increasingly accompany hurricanes as warmer oceans add energy.
The broader picture is clear: going this deep into September without a hurricane still leaves plenty of risk across the basin.
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