Forecasters say El Niño has returned, and it's not going to remain mild for long, as some forecasters have labeled it a "Super El Niño."
Warm water spreading across the Pacific is already starting to influence weather around the globe, and by winter, the pattern could reach the rare "super" category.
What's happening?
Meteorologists at the World Meteorological Organization now consider El Niño underway in the tropical Pacific, with conditions that could strengthen rapidly in the coming months.
Yahoo News reported that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made it official last month after months of warning that a strong event was increasingly likely.
El Niño develops when trade winds weaken, and warm surface water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific. That shift can push the jet stream farther south, changing storm tracks and altering how heat and rainfall are distributed across the United States and around the world.
The NOAA puts the odds at 63% that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific will be at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above normal from November 2026 through January 2027, which is the cutoff for a very strong, or "super," El Niño.
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Reaching that level would make it the first event of that strength since 2015-2016.
Why does it matter?
A stronger El Niño can influence everything from winter rainfall to hurricane risk and extreme heat.
Typical U.S. winter effects include cooler, wetter conditions across the southern tier, especially near the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while the northern half of the country is often warmer.
Tropical storm patterns usually shift as well: strong El Niño years tend to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity and increase it in the central and eastern Pacific, raising the chances of threats for places such as Hawaii and parts of the Southwest.
The warming effect also has global implications. The NOAA said earlier this year that 2026 was already "very likely" to rank among the five hottest years on record even before fully factoring in El Niño.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned in June that "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
Past events have also carried enormous financial costs. A 2023 study in Science found that the 1982-83 El Niño caused $4.1 trillion in global income losses, while the 1997-98 event caused $5.7 trillion.
What's being done?
Weather agencies are closely monitoring ocean temperatures and wind patterns to refine forecasts as the event develops.
Recent observations led the WMO to say a strong El Niño could take shape quickly between July and September 2026.
Still, forecasters stress that a stronger ocean signal does not guarantee the same impacts everywhere.
Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at the NOAA, told USA Today that "stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely."
As World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo put it, "El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event, as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts."
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