A rare and especially intense El Niño may be on the way, raising the risk of floods in some regions, drought in others, and more heat worldwide.
Forecasters say the odds are climbing quickly as Pacific Ocean temperatures keep rising.
What's happening?
El Niño develops when the atmosphere responds to unusually warm surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. According to data from the US Climate Prediction Center, reported by Fortune, there is now an 82% chance that El Niño will form by the end of July.
There is also a 67% chance that it could strengthen into a strong or very strong El Niño as it builds toward 2027 — the kind of rare event often referred to as a "Super El Niño." Very strong El Niños have appeared only a few times since 1950, most recently in 2015-2016.
Fortune noted that El Niño is one phase of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a climate pattern that shifts between warmer El Niño conditions, cooler La Niña conditions, and neutral periods.
El Niño events tend to peak around December and January, even though their effects can continue for months.
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Why does it matter?
A strong El Niño can disrupt daily life far beyond the Pacific.
These events often bring hotter, drier conditions to Australia, Southeast Asia, the northern U.S., and Canada, while the southern U.S., Chile, Argentina, and parts of East Africa are more likely to become wetter and face flooding.
The pattern can also affect food and energy systems. Drier weather can damage harvests of staple crops such as rice, wheat, coffee, and sugar, while lower rainfall can cut hydroelectric power output.
Hotter conditions can also drive up electricity demand for cooling, putting additional strain on power grids and raising the risk of blackouts.
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The economic consequences can be enormous. Scientists at Dartmouth College estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño was tied to $5.7 trillion in lost global GDP over five years, Fortune reported.
A strong event could also add to global heat. Scientists expect 2027 could be among the hottest years ever recorded, with El Niño likely adding to the warming.
What's being done?
Forecasters are already monitoring Pacific temperatures and atmospheric changes to give governments, utilities, farmers, and shipping operators more time to prepare.
ENSO outlooks can provide months-ahead signals on storms, drought, crop yields, and energy demand.
People in drought-prone areas can review water-saving measures and wildfire plans, while those in flood-prone regions can check insurance coverage, emergency kits, and evacuation routes.
Scientists are still debating how climate change may affect how often El Niño occurs, but there is growing agreement that a hotter planet can worsen many of its impacts.
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