Texas households face a projected $69.40 increase in heating spending when compared to the October 2025 through March 2026 heating season.
The expected $428.27 total for October 2026 through March 2027 would nevertheless be 33.8% below the national average.
Here's what to know
Texas has the sixth-lowest projected heating costs among the contiguous United States, according to a Power Choice Texas study reported by CW33.
The Texas electricity comparison website estimates that households will pay an average of $71.38 per month during the six-month season.
The comparison season, October 2025 through March 2026, had estimated heating bills of $59.81 per month and $358.87 overall. The new forecast is 19.3% higher.
Texas households are projected to pay more than $200 less than the national seasonal average of $646.80. Spread across the 2026–27 heating season, that U.S. average works out to $107.80 per month.
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More background
A seasonal heating budget of $256.23 works out to $42.70 per month in Arizona, where projected costs are the lowest among the contiguous states. That puts it 60.4% under the U.S. average, according to CW33, though it represents a 55.2% increase from the state's estimated $165.10 bill for October 2025 through March 2026.
Florida ranks second, with a projected total of $259.24, averaging $43.21 monthly. Unlike Arizona and Texas, however, Florida is expected to see costs decline. Its projected seasonal bill is 13.5% lower than the October 2025 through March 2026 season's $299.78.
Projected seasonal bills are $302.03 in California, $301.83 in Louisiana, and $281.90 in Nevada, completing the group of five states expected to spend less than Texas.
A $1,524.93 seasonal forecast puts Rhode Island at the high-cost end of the state rankings. That amounts to $254.15 per month and exceeds the national average by 135.8%.
What's being done?
To estimate what households could pay, Power Choice Texas analyzed U.S. Energy Information Administration data on historical and predicted heating expenses across the contiguous states.
The study calculated average heating costs for October 2025 through March 2026, then used federal projections to account for anticipated shifts in energy demand and prices.
The resulting estimates also place Utah and Idaho among the 10 states with the lowest projected costs. Monthly projections of $78.24 in Utah and $79.05 in Idaho correspond to seasonal bills of $469.46 and $474.29, respectively.
A six-month bill of $510.19 is projected for Oregon, compared with $507.57 for New Mexico. Those totals correspond to monthly bills of $85.03 and $84.60, respectively, and put the two states in the remaining spots in that lowest-cost group.
Nationally, the projected $646.80 heating bill for October 2026 through March 2027 represents a 1.2% decline from the October 2025 through March 2026 season's estimated $654.42.
Where can I learn more?
Statewide heating forecasts help put individual households' utility bills in perspective.
• In Tulia, Texas, residents face utility bills over $300, causing widespread complaints about costs.
• A Texas homeowner's $950 winter power bill led HVAC professionals to a costly heat-strip culprit.
• An Austin homeowner shared utility and gas bills for a 1949 home with 1980s HVAC equipment.
• Northeast households face $2,300 heating oil bills as the Iran war jolts winter costs.
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