The Atlantic basin reached the traditional peak of hurricane season Thursday with unusually small tallies: five named storms and zero hurricanes.
Experts say that quieter-than-usual pace should not be confused with an all-clear.
Here's what to know
Of the five named storms — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard — the Naples News reported that three came ashore along the Gulf Coast. Even so, none intensified into a hurricane, despite the fact that the season's most active window usually spans from mid-August to mid-October.
Dry, dusty air and the wind shear linked to a strong El Niño have made tropical development hard in the Atlantic, forecasters say. Those same conditions can also keep storms that do form from gaining strength.
"During the next week, there is no significant chance of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic," Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, said, per the News.
NOAA's historical benchmarks show just how unusual this season has been. The first Atlantic hurricane typically forms by Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane by Sept. 1.
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The News also reported that Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, who focuses on seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, wrote on X on Sept. 3 that wind shear in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean "continues to shatter previous records."
Even so, meteorologists still warn that the season could bring trouble. "We believe there can be up to two additional direct impacts to the United States for the remainder of the season," Nicholas Arman, AccuWeather forecasting operations meteorologist, said, per the News.
More background
Measured against long-term norms, this season remains well behind pace. As the News noted, the Atlantic averaged 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes annually from 1991 to 2020. "Normally, we would have had seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane as of Sept. 8," Rosencrans said.
Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist with Fox Weather, told the News, "Clearly, this year is going to be different than anything in the modern record."
Arman said: "The areas we are most concerned with remain in the northeastern Gulf and the Carolina coast. The most likely area for development is often 'home-grown' or develops close to the coast." In those cases, he said, coastal residents might have only a few days — or even just hours — to prepare.
Florida remained the top state for possible impacts in CSU's August outlook, the News reported. The university estimated a 44% chance of a named storm event within 50 miles of Florida along with a 22% chance of a hurricane and a 10% chance of a major hurricane.
What can be done?
The Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30, and NOAA says 97% of tropical cyclone activity happens between June 1 and that date. So, even with a muted peak, the threat of a dangerous late-season storm does not disappear.
Arman said residents should revisit evacuation plans, check emergency supplies, and confirm that their phones are set to receive local weather alerts.
Securing loose outdoor items, reviewing insurance documents, and knowing where to find updates can reduce stress if a storm forms nearby.
"Even though fewer storms are likely to form this year than we're used to, it only takes one to ruin your year. So we can be optimistic but still prepared," Norcross said, per the News.
Where can I learn more?
This quieter season still fits a familiar pattern. Coastal communities remain vulnerable, especially to storms that form close to shore.
• NOAA warned that it will take only one storm to upend the quiet 2026 Atlantic season.
• After Hurricane Beryl, forecasters said it was a big wake-up call for coastal communities.
• Emergency officials stressed that the most dangerous aspect of hurricanes is often flooding.
For residents in Florida, along the Gulf Coast, and of the Carolinas, staying prepared is vital.
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