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Experts warn recent government reportings don't paint complete picture of nation's energy industry: 'An accounting trick'

LULUCF relies on trees and plants to absorb carbon released by polluting human behavior.

LULUCF relies on trees and plants to absorb carbon released by polluting human behavior.

Photo Credit: iStock

The Australian government recently released climate data suggesting the country has seen a significant fall in planet-warming pollution over the past two decades. But experts say this data is misleading, per the Australian Associated Press.

In an annual climate statement, Australian climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen said planet-warming pollution in 2024 fell "28.2% below 2005 levels," adding the country is "on track" to reach a 43% reduction by 2030.

The AAP, however, reports that experts are critical of the claim, with one calling the report "an accounting trick" that puts a positive spin on climate progress.

The AAP states the 28.2% reduction cited is "accurate under the agreed international accounting terms by which national emissions are recorded and reported." The figure includes pollution from several sectors, including agriculture, energy, waste, and industrial processes. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry — also known as LULUCF — is another considered sector that includes pollution brought into the environment by land use and pollution removed from the environment through conservation efforts.

As the AAP reports, if a tree is planted, current international accounting recognizes that as removing pollution from the atmosphere. If a tree is cut down, that is seen as adding pollution. Shifts to sustainable farming practices and livestock management are also considered as "removing" pollution.

Australia particularly advocated for this LULUCF clause in international pollution reporting standards — "so much so that it became known as the 'Australia clause,'" according to the AAP. Now, climate experts say the clause is responsible for Australia's reported climate progress, not necessarily a switch to more sustainable practices across all sectors.

Andrew Macintosh, a professor of environmental law and policy at Australian National University, told the AAP the inclusion of LULUCF made the data "if not misleading then certainly incomplete."

According to data analyzed by the AAP, Australia emitted 440.6 million tonnes (486 million tons) of planet-warming pollution in the year ending June 2024. That's a 28.2% decrease from the 613.4 million tonnes (676 million tons) released in the year ending June 2005. But LULUCF makes up 163.4 million tonnes (180 million tons) of this 172.8 million tonne (190 million ton) difference.

If LULUCF is excluded, Australia released 538.4 million tonnes (593 million tons) of pollution in the year ending June 2005 and 529 million tonnes (583 million tons) in the year ending June 2024. That's a reduction of just 9.4 million tonnes (10 million tons) or 1.7%.

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Some sectors have seen a drop in pollution from 2005 to 2024, including the electric and agriculture sectors. But other sectors — like energy excluding electricity, transportation, and extraction and distribution of fossil fuels — have seen a large spike in polluting emissions.

Bryce Kelly, an associate professor and expert in planet-warming pollution measurements at the University of New South Wales, told the AAP that LULUCF is "a short-term accounting trick." That's because LULUCF relies on trees and plants to absorb carbon released by polluting human behavior. These plants and trees, however, will eventually die, releasing carbon back into the atmosphere. While planting trees can be part of a solution, Kelly told the AAP it's not a long-term solution on its own.

Kelly also warned that current data isn't based on true atmospheric observations, but rather estimates calculated based on types of sector activity and the pollution usually resulting from that activity. Kelly told the AAP that for some sector subcategories, uncertainty in the estimate can reach plus or minus 50%. This means the true data could be significantly higher or lower.

Without the offset from LULUCF, Macintosh told the AAP Australia would not be on track to meet its 2030 climate targets.

When asked if current reporting methods give an accurate picture of Australia's climate progress, a spokesperson for Chris Bowen told the AAP that targets and reporting "are transparent and consistent with international accounting rules under the Paris Agreement".

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