Cheaper oil does not necessarily mean cheaper flights right away.
U.S. travelers may still face expensive tickets for months, the Associated Press reported, because airlines are still dealing with rapid fuel-cost swings while operating on schedules planned far ahead.
Here's what to know
Airlines say the bigger challenge has been the instability in jet fuel since the war involving Iran began. Those swings, not only the overall price, are one reason fares have been slow to come down.
The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index fell from $4.88 a gallon in early April to $2.70 in June before rising again to $4.53 on Sept. 17.
Ticket prices did not fall with that drop in fuel prices from April to June. The average base fare, excluding add-ons like checked luggage and seat assignments, rose from $405 in late 2025 to $428 in the first quarter and then to $436 in the April-June period. In August, Labor Department data showed U.S. airfares were up 23% from a year earlier.
For Brett House, who teaches economics at Columbia Business School, the main problem for airlines is unpredictability.
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"It's not just the level of fuel costs that is a problem or a challenge for airlines," he said. "It's also the volatility."
Holiday travelers are already feeling the effect. Hopper estimated that average round-trip domestic tickets were $402 for Thanksgiving and $452 for Christmas, up 31% and 23% from the prior year.
More background
House said the lag is tied to airline planning cycles, with pricing and route decisions often made months before departure.
By the time fuel prices climbed again, United had already sold roughly 35% of its tickets for the final three months of the year, United Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen said at a Sept. 16 investor conference.
"I don't actually care if it stays high. I just need it to stabilize," he said.
American Airlines Chief Financial Officer Devon May said a one-cent per-gallon increase adds roughly $10 million to the company's quarterly fuel bill. American, United, and Southwest Airlines have all said they are trimming less-profitable routes, and United has signaled additional cuts in 2027 if fuel stays expensive.
What can be done?
Stephen Treanor, who teaches finance at California State University, Chico, said jet fuel prices will likely need to fall and remain low for a sustained period before travelers see meaningful relief on fares.
A Deutsche Bank analysis of flight pricing found same-day one-way domestic fares jumped to $280 at Allegiant Air and $463 at American Airlines on Sept. 18.
"The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months," said House.
Where can I learn more?
Policy changes and cleaner-fuel efforts can shape ticket prices, too. These stories look at Denmark's new flight tax, airline fuel alternatives, Delta's sustainability strategy, and Japan's hydrogen-aircraft push.
• In Denmark, a passenger tax is expected to fund aviation's green transition.
• Airlines have said corn-based jet fuel alternatives are already entering long-term planning.
• Scientists are pursuing poop-powered sustainable aviation fuel that could reshape airline fuel supplies.
• At Delta, leaders have said that future air travel depends on cleaner fuel without limiting trips.
• In Japan, next-generation aircraft plans got government backing through a $33 billion program.
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