A few years ago, it looked far more likely that electric vehicles would capture a larger share of the U.S. market by 2030. A new forecast now paints a much slower transition, one that could leave Americans filling up at gas stations longer than many had expected.
Researchers say the weaker outlook reflects several pressures at once, including reduced government support, delayed or canceled vehicle rollouts, and U.S. EV prices that remain high compared with those in other regions.
What happened?
According to InsideEVs, BloombergNEF now expects plug-in vehicles to account for 17% of new U.S. car sales in 2030, a sharp decline from the 47.5% share it projected in 2024.
BloombergNEF researchers wrote in the company's June 2026 Electric Vehicle Outlook: "This is the second consecutive year where we have reduced both our near-term and long-term passenger EV adoption outlook." They added that "Full withdrawal of federal regulatory support for electrification in the U.S. is the biggest factor."
The government has also rolled back financial incentives, including when Congress ended the $7,500 federal EV tax credit several years early, InsideEVs reported.
In the shorter term, the firm expects plug-in vehicles to make up 8.4% of U.S. sales in 2026 and 9% in 2027. BloombergNEF said the market may not get back to last year's level until 2028.
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Among the main reasons for the downgrade, BloombergNEF electric vehicles analyst Huiling Zhou highlighted weaker fuel economy rules and the end of California's tougher emissions authority. "Essentially, under that new fuel economy rule, very little electrification is required," Zhou stated.
The outlook was also hurt by pullbacks and delays by automakers, including Volkswagen's ID.4, Nissan's Ariya, Hyundai's Ioniq 6, Volvo's EX30, and Honda's planned 0-Series vehicles.
Why does it matter?
A slower rollout of EVs means more than a thinner selection on dealer lots. It also gives households fewer opportunities to move into vehicles that often cost less to fuel and maintain over time, especially when gas prices are volatile.
Transportation is one of the biggest sources of planet-warming pollution in the U.S., so slower EV growth could make it harder to cut emissions that worsen extreme weather and air quality.
Those burdens are often felt most heavily by lower-income communities and people living near busy roads, where exposure to pollution tends to be higher.
The report also underscores a pricing and competition challenge in the U.S. Zhou said electric cars in the country cost about 25% more than gas-powered vehicles, the largest price gap among the regions BloombergNEF studied.
"There's barely any competition, or very little competition in the U.S. right now," she said. With more competition generally comes lower prices — leading to EVs in America coming at a higher price point than in Chinese markets, Zhou noted.
BloombergNEF projects that plug-in vehicles will account for more than 27% of global car sales this year and 38% by 2030.
If that gap widens while the U.S. falls behind, American drivers could miss out on lower prices, more vehicle options, and faster innovation.
What's being done?
Even with the weaker near-term forecast, BloombergNEF still expects prices to improve and total ownership costs to decline, supporting EV demand over time.
Some states are also continuing to push back. California and other states that adopted its tougher emissions framework are challenging the rollback of that policy in court, a fight that could shape the path forward for cleaner cars in the U.S.
Upcoming launches include the BMW iX5, a Jeep Wagoneer extended-range EV, and the Slate pickup.
More competition could help bring prices down.
For people who drive often, EVs may provide financial benefits over time because fueling and maintenance costs are typically much lower.
"Definitely those major model cancellations affect the overall picture," Zhou said. "The near term forecast is still largely depending on the available models."
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