Expert warns that cutting solar incentives will have dire consequences: 'People's electricity bills will start to skyrocket across the entire country'

Experts warn that an abrupt cut to residential solar tax incentives — as is proposed in the latest version of the "Big Beautiful Bill" — could have serious implications for people's utility bills, the future of local companies, and the stability of the overall power grid going forward. 

Their message to lawmakers: The solar tax credit doesn't need to stay forever, but don't pull the plug immediately.

Their message to homeowners: Make your voice heard by reaching out to your senators to tell them that solar incentives are important to you — before it's too late. 

(Additionally, if you're considering going solar, now is the best time to take advantage of the existing incentives to save an estimated $9,000 on a solar system before the risk of the benefits going away.)  

This past week, a group of industry leaders — from manufacturers to installers, financers, and distributors — traveled to Washington, D.C., to educate and lobby congressmen about why residential solar tax credits are vital to supporting American energy dominance, growing local jobs and businesses, and lowering Americans' energy bills. 

Among them was Emily Walker, Director of Content and Insights at EnergySage, an independent clean energy marketplace and frequent partner of The Cool Down, who spoke to TCD about the future of residential solar and what homeowners should know. 

Bottom line: "Now is the time to affect change, and your senators and your representatives need to hear from you," Walker told The Cool Down.  

"You really can make a difference by telling your story and explaining how solar benefited you and why you think it's important to keep electricity prices low for everyone in your community," she said.

And it's not too late to affect the outcome of the bill, Walker told us. "We're hearing directly from senators that they're not getting enough calls from their local constituents, so now is the time to act."

What's happening in Washington?

When the so-called "Big, Beautiful Bill" was debated and passed through the House of Representatives in May, many of the clean energy tax credits and incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were eliminated from the proposal, including the tax credit for residential solar.

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Now the Senate is refining the bill — and while the latest version from the Senate Finance Committee protects some clean energy benefits, it still does not provide for residential solar tax credits past the end of 2025.

"It did have some improvements for solar and clean energy in general, but when it comes to residential solar, it really didn't make that much of an impact," Walker explained.

That's why industry leaders have come to Washington, collaborating across companies to lobby senators to change the bill before it moves to the floor for a vote in the coming weeks. 

"Everyone there [is] advocating for cleaner energy, advocating for faster energy, and advocating for their jobs, because at the end of the day, if this demand dries up, their jobs will too, and it's going to really hurt local economies and a lot of the United States," Walker said. 

What will happen if the residential solar tax credits go away?

We asked Walker what might happen if residential solar incentives are eliminated. 

First, she said, "We're going to see a huge exodus of people from the industry who won't be around to support a stronger grid when it's realized that this was a mistake." A new report from market research firm Ohm Analytics predicts a 60% drop in installed residential solar in 2026 if the bill is passed in its proposed form, according to Canary Media. 

That means many local companies will go out of business that are tied to the solar industry. An estimated 100,000 people are employed in the residential solar industry.  

And while some states with high electricity prices — where solar consequently makes the most economic sense — will continue to see fairly strong solar markets, Walker says, "I think what will happen is pretty soon after that people's electricity bills will start to skyrocket across the entire country."

That might then drive people to consider solar panels, but by that point solar will be more expensive and harder to get without infrastructure in place.

"It's kind of going to hit people twice, or they're going to be feeling the effects of higher electricity bills because the grid is unstable. They're going to be experiencing more blackouts, and unless they're wealthy, they're not going to have a way to combat that," Walker predicted.

What actions can people take?

If you care about protecting clean energy tax credits, now's the time to reach out to your senators to let them know how you feel, Walker said, adding that the Senate is actively making revisions and considering several amendments to the bill. One of the best things anyone can do to fight unnecessary pollution is to use your voice, which in this case can be visiting the Senate's website to send an email or get phone numbers to contact your senators' offices. 

"I don't expect this to be the final bill text," Walker said. "I'm hopeful that some of those amendments that they're considering do include more of a 'glide path' for residential solar, even if it's just another year extension, that gives businesses some more breathing room in order to adapt their models to survive in a post-tax credit era."

And if you're interested in getting solar panels for your home, which can bring your cost of energy down to at or near $0, according to EnergySage's calculations, the company provides a free service that makes it easy to compare quotes from vetted local installers and save money on solar installations.

"We're going to keep fighting, but if [tax incentives are] cut at the end of this year, that means you're going to lose out on pretty significant savings," Walker said. "So there's no better time than right now — especially as more people are trying to get in under the gun here, the more difficult it is to be able to get your system installed by the end of this year. … So act now."

But should consumers be concerned about solar installers going out of business if the industry gets hit? While Walker said that's "a very valid concern," she also shared a survey among installers that showed many of them will likely pivot into operations and maintenance of solar panels if their industry business dries up. 

"There's going to be a growing number of installers who are moving into that field in order to support these systems," she said, adding, "EnergySage will continue to be here as a resource, and we'll be able to help put people in touch with those companies if they need them."

Tackling solar misconceptions 

Since Walker is in D.C. helping educate our members of Congress, we wanted to get her take for TCD readers as well. So we asked her to help unpack some of the biggest misconceptions about solar and set the record straight, starting with a fact many people don't understand. 

"As our energy demand is growing as a country, at the end of the day, residential solar provides the fastest electrons to the grid," Walker said. "It's the easiest way to get more energy, more electricity on the grid quickly."  

That's particularly important as energy demands are rising across the world due to increasing electrification and the exponential growth of artificial intelligence, which requires significant power.

What about the idea that solar is just for wealthy people? 

 "That's factually inaccurate," she said, citing a 2024 study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that analyzed over 4 million solar installations and found that most people installing solar panels are actually considered low- to moderate-income households.

"It's something that can benefit everyone because at the end of the day, if you're taking out a loan or you're signing a lease, you should be seeing those savings on Day One," she said.

What about the "intermittency" aspect of solar? "We hear a lot that it's unstable, that it doesn't provide power when you need it," Walker said. But that's just wrong, she explained.

"Solar, when it is producing [energy], is providing much more electricity than we actually need at that given moment. So if you have a battery paired with it, you're able to store that excess electricity for use later on, and then you're going to be supporting a very stable grid where they can pull from your battery when the grid is strained in order to avoid having to turn on really costly peaking power plants that end up raising everyone's electric bills."

"I wish people knew that residential solar, especially when paired with batteries, helps lower electricity prices for everyone, not just those who have it on their roof," she said.

What about the argument that the government shouldn't be subsidizing the clean energy industry? To that, Walker said EnergySage doesn't believe the tax credits should be around forever. 

"Solar isn't a very mature market, and that's why these incentives have continued to be very beneficial," she said. "We understand they can't stay around forever, and we're not asking for them to. We're asking for a reasonable glide path that gives businesses and the industry time to adapt so that we can continue to deploy reliable, clean energy to the grid." 

In other words, as solar costs come down, incentives will be less important to scale adoption.

What happens next? 

Experts are expecting the bill to be voted on in the coming weeks, and once it's approved by the Senate and the House, it will go to President Donald Trump for a vote. 

There's still hope, Walker said, because the bill can continue to be changed — in the House, for example, changes were made in the middle of the night during the last hours of negotiation.

"My hope really comes from conversations with Senate offices who get it," she said. "They don't want to see electricity prices rise in their state. They don't want to see thousands of jobs lost in their state, and they understand that an abrupt cut to this tax credit at the end of this year is going to do that." 

"Solar is an investment in the economy and there's a way to phase out these tax credits without disrupting solar growth and jobs in the way it would if it were this abrupt," Walker said. 

Editor's note: If you want to use your voice to make a difference, you can look up how to contact your own state senators here.

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