Record ocean heat is helping fuel an El Niño that could become the strongest ever recorded by December 2026, with dangerous consequences for communities worldwide, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
More intense heat and other severe weather could remain a threat well into 2027 as the event unfolds.
Here's what to know
Global temperatures from January through September 2026 were approximately 2.65 degrees Fahrenheit (1.47 degrees Celsius) above the preindustrial average. The figure appears in the WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026, released Nov. 9, 2026, ahead of COP31 talks in Türkiye, according to UN News.
El Niño has exerted an increasingly strong warming influence since August 2026, with further temperature increases expected through the end of 2026.
According to the WMO update, ocean warmth in 2026 is on course for a tenth consecutive annual record. Oceans absorb around 90% of the excess heat trapped by heat-trapping gases. The update's temperature rankings put 2023 through 2026 at the top, with each year from 2015 through 2026 among the hottest ever measured.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained how this ocean heat contributes to El Niño's effects.
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"El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release," she said.
More background
Temperatures reached about 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47 degrees Celsius) during India's extreme heatwave in April 2026, which affected around 146.5 million people.
The June 22-28, 2026, heatwave accounted for approximately 16,000 of Europe's estimated excess deaths over the summer of 2026. Provisional estimates put the summer's total above 30,000.
More than 1,300 people died in Nepal when a Himalayan glacier collapsed in late August 2026 and sent a devastating flash flood downstream.
El Niño is also increasing risks to agriculture, according to the WMO update. In areas where food insecurity is widespread and farming depends on rain, damaged harvests threaten both food supplies and livelihoods.
According to the WMO update, global land-based water storage has fallen since 2014, and 42% of the area assessed in 2025 was below normal.
What's being done?
In an unprecedented step, the World Health Organization has designated the anticipated health effects of El Niño a health emergency.
The designation comes as Saulo warned that the event will multiply risks from heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms.
Ahead of COP31, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged leaders to accelerate emissions cuts and the transition away from fossil fuels. He also called for funding and protection for vulnerable countries facing these dangers.
Guterres said, "Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst."
Where can I learn more?
El Niño can bring unusually warm coastal waters and put harvests and health at risk. These stories examine winter weather risks, heat and flooding, food insecurity, and projected heat deaths.
• A Massachusetts meteorologist warns a record-strong El Niño could push winter into uncharted weather territory.
• A British Columbia meteorologist warns a super El Niño could bring record heat, floods, and droughts.
• Forecasters warn a record El Niño could bring drought to Asia and threaten global food security.
• El Niño could bring 451,000 extra heat deaths, with the Global South facing the worst toll.
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