El Niño could help push global temperatures to a record high in 2027. Climate researcher Zeke Hausfather recently discussed projections of 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.24 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.
Here's what to know
According to Renew Economy, October temperatures in Europe's ERA5 dataset reached 1.75 degrees Celsius (3.15 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. They exceeded the previous October record of 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.06 degrees Fahrenheit) set in 2023.
Europe's Copernicus Programme provided the dataset that Hausfather discussed on social media, including Bluesky. Hausfather works as a climate researcher with Berkeley Earth and Carbon Brief.
According to Hausfather, ERA5 projections put 2026 on track to finish roughly 1.56 degrees Celsius (2.81 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, just below the 1.6-degree Celsius (2.88-degree Fahrenheit) anomaly recorded in 2024. That would make 2026 the second-hottest year in the reliable temperature record, behind only 2024.
An unprecedented Pacific El Niño is amplifying the climate-change-driven warmth that the 2027 outlook reflected.
A further temperature spike can arrive the year after an El Niño because of its delayed effects. These events typically continue through the later months of a year, releasing ocean heat into the atmosphere.
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More background
The temperature findings coincide with an open letter signed by over 500 academics from Australia and abroad, according to Renew Economy. The letter urged Australian leaders, including Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and state premiers, to accelerate action on heat-trapping pollution.
Signatories include climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of Australian National University, James Cook University coral expert and emeritus professor Terry Hughes, Rebecca Gregory of CSIRO, and Graeme I Pearman of the University of Melbourne.
The letter emphasizes that Australia's support for new fossil fuel projects and expansions will have mounting climate impacts.
Australia's minister responsible for climate change and energy, Chris Bowen, will chair negotiations at COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, from Nov. 9 to 20. The letter was released ahead of that summit.
What's being done?
The academics are calling on leaders to stop approving projects that would open or expand coal, oil, and gas operations.
Their demands include denying federal approval for New South Wales' Hunter Valley Operations Continuation Project and halting further expansion at Beetaloo in the Northern Territory.
They also want a legally binding timetable for phasing out fossil fuels and protections to ensure a fair transition for workers and communities.
"Australia has the knowledge, the wealth, the renewable resources and this year, the diplomatic platform to lead," the letter states, as Renew Economy relayed.
It concludes, "What is required now is your courage. If not now, while leading negotiations and standing before our Pacific family, then when? We ask you to be brave, to be bold, and to act with the urgency that the evidence demands."
Where can I learn more?
The prospect of El Niño pushing temperatures even higher comes after a string of heat records.
• Earth logged its hottest August on record as El Niño intensified global warmth.
• In British Columbia, a super El Niño could bring record heat, floods, and droughts.
• Global sea surface temperatures reached a record 70 degrees Fahrenheit, continuing to alarm scientists.
• Earth's seven climate vital signs reached record extremes as global warming continued accelerating.
• El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat deaths, with the Global South facing disproportionate losses.
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