Japan's effort to bring soaring rice prices under control appears to have tipped too far in the opposite direction.
Here's what to know
For growers like Hiroshi Asano, the lower prices create a different problem. According to Bloomberg, Asano, who farms 38 hectares (94 acres) in Chiba near Tokyo, said he expects to lose money in 2026 and worries many smaller farms will not survive.
"I've been hearing about quite a few people who plan to give up this year," Asano said.
An unusually hot summer in 2023 pushed rice yields to their lowest level in more than a decade, just as restaurant demand picked up again. The shock hit a market normally tightly managed through production guidelines and import restrictions that protect domestic growers and maintain food security.
To address the shortage, the government released about 650,000 tons of stockpiled rice, or about a month's supply. Asano said that amount was too much and that then-agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi had gone too far.
"Essentially Koizumi did not need to release that much stockpiled rice last year," he said. "People were saying rice was expensive, so they released too much, and now there's an excess."
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More background
The glut is hitting a farming sector that was already shrinking and aging. Per the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the farmer count fell from 2.4 million in 2000 to under 1 million in 2026. Ministry data also showed that roughly 70% of people whose main job is farming, excluding incorporated businesses, are older than 65.
According to Asano, lower prices only make it easier for parents to avoid passing farms on to children who have chosen other careers.
Price cuts are showing up beyond supermarket shelves, with three convenience store chains also lowering prices on rice balls. The agriculture ministry said an 11-pound bag of rice cost about 2,934 yen ($18.65) as of Sept. 20, down from more than 4,400 yen ($28) in January.
What's being done?
Bloomberg reported that officials also revised their rice forecasting model to account for factors including population trends, tourism, and milling yields. Japan's agriculture ministry said it will buy back about 210,000 tons of rice to rebuild reserves, a move intended to absorb excess supply.
A revised food law also requires processors and food-service businesses to provide inventory and sales figures so the government can track market distribution more clearly.
Kunio Nishikawa, a professor at Nihon University who researches agricultural policy, said subsidies may be needed to help farmers stay in business. Even so, Kimio Inagaki, a fellow at Mitsubishi Research Institute who studies farm policy, expects prices to keep falling.
He supports a government-set floor price that would allow farmers to earn a livable wage, in part because many smaller producers cannot afford the kind of transition he is attempting. Asano is adapting by growing organic rice, processing it himself, and selling to local rice shops and individual buyers rather than relying only on the cooperative.
"Now the farm has become this big, I think: If I quit, what are all these other people going to do?" he said. "But if it were just me, I might have given up already."
Where can I learn more?
Rice prices in Japan are part of a broader pattern of crop shocks and price swings hitting food markets and farm incomes. These stories discuss rising global rice costs, climate-driven crop losses, and growers in several countries weighing whether to keep farming.
• Across food markets, rice prices hit their highest in 15 years, straining budgets.
• In Turkey, a rare freeze wipes out crops across 36 provinces, squeezing farmers.
• In Nepal, local conditions force farmers to rethink orange growing as harvests keep sliding.
• Amid a nationwide crisis, farmers are forced to switch away from figs.
• In Ukraine, record heat transforms once-fertile fields, leaving farmers at risk of total loss.
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