Researchers estimate a powerful El Niño may contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide during the first nine months of the climate pattern compared with a typical year, with the greatest burden expected in the Global South.
Here's what to know
That is the grim outlook, according to projections from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.
Researchers expect the hardest-hit areas to be in the Global South, especially lower-income countries where limited cooling, health care, and emergency response capacity can make extreme heat even more dangerous.
CBS News noted that Brazil and India are among the countries projected to face especially severe losses. Researchers also estimate that Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad could surpass 65,000 heat-related deaths combined, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia together may approach 40,000.
El Niño involves warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific. That shift can reshape weather patterns around the world, raising the odds of dangerous heat in some places while worsening drought, flooding, and wildfire conditions in others.
The Climate Impact Lab said the heat toll is only part of the threat.
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"That's on top of the impacts from droughts, wildfires and flooding expected from hotter temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns as this El Niño could become the strongest on record," the research hub said in a news release.
More background
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center anticipates El Niño to possibly continue all the way until spring, per CBS News. Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization has said this El Niño may become the strongest ever recorded, with peak intensity expected closer to the end of 2026.
What's being done?
Researchers said the report is meant to help governments and aid groups determine where rapid action is needed most.
Climate Impact Lab cofounder Michael Greenstone said in the release that the Climate Impact Lab's report "allows decisionmakers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months."
The report also points to practical interventions that can reduce harm, including heat warnings, outreach to vulnerable residents, as well as cooling sites, hydration points, worker safeguards, and broader health system capacity.
"This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives," Greenstone concluded in the release.
Where can I learn more?
El Niño's projected death toll is part of a wider pattern, with extreme heat and other climate-related health risks often hitting vulnerable communities hardest.
• Across Southeast Asia, unprecedented heat in coastal waters signaled how brutal April conditions had become.
• In Spain, below-average income brackets faced higher odds of dying during heat waves.
• Scientists warned this El Niño could push weather extremes beyond what past events delivered.
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