Health insurance costs are poised to rise again, and the increase is not expected to fall on employers alone.
Workers could also feel the pressure through larger paycheck deductions and higher bills when they need care.
Here's what to know
According to a new Aon study cited by HR Dive, employer-sponsored health coverage is projected to cost more than $19,000 per employee in 2027, a 9.5% increase from the year before.
Employees are not expected to avoid the increase. Even with employers continuing to pay over 80% of health plan costs, workers in 2026 are projected to spend an average of $5,297 on coverage, about 7.9% more than in 2025.
That total includes a 6.4% increase in payroll contributions, to $3,130, and a 10.2% rise in out of pocket costs, to $2,167.
Aon linked the increase in out-of-pocket spending to greater health care use and higher enrollment in low-coverage plans.
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The report also pointed to higher medical billing tied to new technologies, including artificial intelligence tools that may enable increasingly detailed clinical documentation and coding.
More background
If Aon's forecast proves accurate, 2027 would be the fourth year in a row with health care cost growth near double digits. The firm said that pattern reflects an unusually long period of elevated health care inflation for employers.
Aon said the upward pressure is coming from several directions. More people are developing chronic conditions that generate costly claims, and prescription drug spending is also climbing as use of specialty medicines and GLP-1 treatments grows.
Employer health care cost increases rose from 3.7% in 2022 to 8.8% in 2026, more than doubling over that span, and many companies appear prepared to pass along more of the burden. Mercer reported that nearly half of U.S. employers with 500 or more workers plan to adjust their 2027 offerings so employees bear a larger share of costs.
The effects may reach beyond health benefits. A survey by the National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions found that 83% of employers said higher health care costs would force trade-offs involving wage and salary increases.
What can be done?
When employers offer multiple plans, a low monthly premium can come with high costs later through deductibles, copays, and other out of pocket expenses.
Flexible spending or health savings options available through work can cushion the financial hit of expected medical expenses as employers shift costs onto employees.
Debbie Ashford, Aon's chief actuary of health solutions in North America, said the organizations in the strongest position will be those that identify emerging risks early and act before costs climb.
"At this level, rising health care costs become much more than a budgeting challenge and influence organizational decisions from benefits strategy and employee affordability to broader workforce and financial planning priorities," Mike Pasterick, Aon's North America leader for health solutions, stated.
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