Heat pumps are back on a growth track globally, but a new U.K. market report suggests the shift away from fossil-fuel heating is still moving slowly.
Even with sales rebounding in 2025, boilers continue to outsell heat pumps by a wide margin.
What happened?
Citing U.K. market research company BSRIA, Cooling Post said the global market remained dominated by boilers in 2025: just under 13 million units were sold, and 90% were gas-fired. Hydronic heat pumps, by comparison, reached about 3.5 million sales worldwide, up a modest 4% after a difficult 2024.
BSRIA also estimated that about 200 million boilers are still in use around the world, with roughly half of them older non-condensing models, and said most current demand is tied to replacement and retrofit work. Based on 2025 sales, that comes to roughly 3.8 boilers sold for every heat pump.
Heat pumps are important because they are significantly more energy-efficient than traditional HVAC systems, and they can provide both heating and cooling in one unit. That can lead to long-term savings, especially when households are able to take advantage of tax credits and rebates using comparing options with resources like EnergySage's Heat Pump Marketplace.
For those who do not need a whole-home setup, Merino offers single-room HVAC systems in lower price ranges.
Why does it matter?
Overall, the findings suggest a market that is gaining ground without yet becoming dominant.
BSRIA said 2025 marks the beginning of another growth stretch for heat pumps, with hydronic units projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8% from 2019 to 2029. It is also estimated that air-to-air heat pumps, including mini-splits and multi-splits, reached around 100 million units in 2024 and would climb another 8% in 2025.
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Cost remains the biggest obstacle for many homeowners.
BSRIA said heat pump prices are still rising with inflation because raw materials and components remain expensive, higher efficiency targets add pressure, and installer shortages continue. Shoppers weighing upfront costs, incentives, and projected savings can compare offers — and reduce utility bills even further — through EnergySage.
What are people saying?
Despite weak construction activity and cautious consumers, BSRIA said the market is showing signs of stabilization.
"Heat pumps are becoming mainstream, even in North America, and boilers are declining, but very slowly. And the opportunity is not in new build alone. It is in the retrofit and replacement market, and that is where the real competition is beginning," said Socrates Christidis, BSRIA's heating and renewables research manager.
He added, "The transition is happening, but the boiler market is in a phase of managed decline, rather than sharp contraction."
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