Several U.S. states across the West and Southwest are set to experience an unprecedented spring heat wave this week, with temperatures soaring to record levels. Scorching, summer-like heat is expected to raise health risks over the coming days.
"Otherworldly?" posted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist for WFLA-TV, on social media. "Sounds over the top, but from the perspective of a meteorologist, that's how out of whack this looks. It's like nothing we've seen before in March."
Forecasting pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere helps meteorologists estimate what temperatures will look like at the surface. Standard sea-level pressure is 1013.25 millibars, but higher up, forecasters often look at the 500 mb level. The height above sea level where pressure drops to 500 mb is a key indicator of the air mass in place. The higher the level, the warmer the air column below it.
When 500 mb heights rise over a region, it signals a strengthening ridge of high pressure and typically hotter temperatures at the surface. Meteorologists with the Phoenix National Weather Service were taken aback by the forecast heights, a signal of the strength of the Southwest ridge that will be building there this week.
"That would put this ridge as one of the strongest ever seen in recorded history for the region, not only for March, but for April as well," the NWS forecasters noted.
More than 45 million people in California, Arizona, and Nevada were under heat advisories on March 17.
"An Extreme Heat Warning means that a period of very hot temperatures, even by local standards, will occur," meteorologists with the Phoenix NWS office explained. "Actions should be taken to lessen the impact of the extreme heat."
Phoenix is getting set to rewrite its record books for the middle of March. The city has only hit 100 degrees once in March. Highs are set to soar above 100 degrees from March 18 through March 22. That means Phoenix may not only break records for days in a row but also shatter them by 7 to 10 degrees.
The NWS and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborate to issue HeatRisk forecasts. Think of it like a heat "threat level" — the higher the category, the greater the risk of heat-related illness if you're outside too long.
Around 25 million people in the West faced a moderate HeatRisk on March 17 — Level 2 out of 4. More than a million people faced a major HeatRisk — Level 3 out of 4. Millions more are set to face those risk categories by the end of the week. By March 20, nearly 37 million people could experience moderate HeatRisk, while almost 3 million will endure major HeatRisk.
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Save $1,000 this year 💸 It's important to note that power outages can also occur under these conditions. And if the grid goes down, the number of people without access to air conditioning will go up. Meanwhile, "For those without air conditioning, living spaces can become deadly during the afternoon and evening," according to the NWS explanation of HeatRisk categories. "Health systems likely to see increased demand with significant increases in [emergency room] visits."
The period from March to August — meteorological spring and summer — was the third-warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. last year. And the historic heat wave this week means spring is off to a sweltering start for several states.
Heat has been the leading weather-related cause of death over the past 30 years in the U.S., killing more people on average annually than floods, lightning, and hurricanes combined. The overheating of the planet is supercharging heat waves, making them more intense and widespread.
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