A Virginia-based utility consulting firm has a mind-blowing mid-century forecast for energy users everywhere.
What's happening?
ICF International's experts expect nationwide electricity demand to increase by 78% and peak demand to spike 54% by 2050 due to increased computing and industrial needs, according to a report summary. The findings echo other dire warnings about runaway artificial intelligence and data center energy needs.
As a result, residential retail rates could jump up to 40% by 2030, depending on market conditions, the researchers added in the full report.
"ICF expects electricity demand growth in every region of the United States, but it will not be felt equally across the country. Some regions are expected to face a double whammy of sorts with overall demand growth and peak demand growth," per the summary. Increases are based on comparisons to 2023 levels.
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Why are rising energy rates important?
Most of the country is highlighted on an ICF map as places to expect spikes, with Washington, D.C., locations along the East Coast, Texas, and elsewhere among the hardest-hit. The Wyoming prairieland is among the least impacted.
ICF cited limited transmission and distribution capacity as well as "complex permitting requirements" as hurdles to grid development. Alarmingly, some parts of the country will be hurt by an inability to connect to new-generation opportunities, as demand outpaces forecasts from as early as last year, per ICF.
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"Utilities and other electric grid stakeholders will be constrained … in some regions," per ICF.
Blackouts have been on the rise for decades, and Climate Central said more extreme weather events are a large factor. Furthermore, NASA has linked increased risks for severe storms to planet-warming air pollution, generated partly by electricity generation from dirty fuels. That's why cleaner solar can be a crucial upgrade, especially at home.
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Home solar provides immediate electricity and energy for later use when paired with a battery. TCD's vetted partners can guide you through the process, from comparing quotes to finding an installer. Action before Dec. 31 can secure tax breaks before they expire, saving you up to $10,000.
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At the grid level, ICF recommends that utilities use all available modeling and predictive data to prepare for future demand and constraints. Pricing and demand modeling from state and federal agencies can help.
The experts said the path forward isn't without opportunity.
"With smart, strategic planning, these challenges can be met," they stated in the report.
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